TADEJ CHASES THE ELUSIVE MILAN-SANREMO VICTORY. IS THIS HIS YEAR?
By Zach Nehr
Milano Sanremo is one of the few races that has eluded Tadej Pogačar for years. This weekend he’ll get another chance at victory. The World Champion finished on the podium in 2024, but Tadej has yet to find the top step. The 289-kilometer Monument is often touted as the hardest race to win in professional cycling. The overall parcours are not very challenging, so it can be difficult for the best riders to get separation from their rivals.
The race changed when Tadej brought a stacked UAE Team Emirates squad to the 2024 edition. His teammates lit the race on fire with more than 40 km to go, adding extra fatigue to the legs after more than six hours of racing. But it wasn’t enough for Tadej to fully distance his rivals, and Jasper Philipsen sprinted to the win on the Via Roma.
Milano Sanremo is the longest Monument on the calendar at nearly 300 kilometers, and it comes with a diverse list of winners such as Mark Cavendish, Vincenzo Nibali, Matej Mohorič, and Mathieu Van der Poel. Anything can happen in the finale of Milano Sanremo, so let’s take a closer look at how the race could play out. This is your Milano Sanremo preview.
The Route
The 2025 edition of Milano Sanremo is 289 kilometers long with 2,217 meters of climbing. However, it is typically a race of two parts: a relatively “easy” opening 230 km followed by an explosive and hilly finale.
In the first part of the race, an early breakaway will go up the road and gain a 10 to 15-minute advantage. The peloton will slowly reel them back in, but then the pace will pick up before the Capo Mele. There are five categorized climbs in the final 50 km of Milano Sanremo, with the Cipressa and Poggio being the infamous final two.
But let’s not forget about the Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, and Capo Berta climbs which begin with a little more than one hour of racing to go. You could do some serious damage on these short climbs, which set up the chaotic finale. The Cipressa is typically seen as the appetizer to the Poggio. Rarely have we seen race-defining attacks on the Cipressa; but that could change in 2025.
The Poggio is the final launchpad for the climbers. But with an average gradient of only 4%, it can be difficult to get separation from your rivals.
How Tadej Finished 3rd in 2024
In 2024, UAE Team Emirates pushed the pace on the Cipressa, and it looked like the stage was set for a vintage Tadej attack. However, the tempo wasn't hard enough to drop the sprinters, so a large peloton came screaming into the base of the Poggio with 9 km to go.
Tadej was glued to his teammate's wheel on the early slopes of the climb, but Mathieu Van der Poel was closely marking the double Tour de France Champion. Tim Wellens upped the tempo for Tadej to attack with 6.6 km to go, but the Slovenian was closely marked, and the pace came out of the front group. Tadej attacked again with 5.6 km to go and led onto the Poggio descent ahead of Van der Poel. The lead group slowly welded itself together – in large part thanks to Van der Poel – and a group of 11 riders came into the final kilometer together. Van der Poel provided the perfect leadout for teammate Jasper Philipsen who crossed the line to win the 2024 Milano Sanremo.
Tadej finished third with an impressive sprint, but he was certainly left wondering what could have been. With only 11 riders making it to the final kilometer in the lead group, what if the race had been just a little bit harder? If UAE Team Emirates had done a more organized lead out on the Cipressa, could Tadej have dropped his rivals?
These questions and more could be answered this Sunday in the 2025 edition of Milano Sanremo.
Key Climb – Cipressa
There are three main strategies for winning Milano Sanremo:
1) Make the race as hard as possible, attacking on the Cipressa and Poggio
2) Time a downhill counterattack to perfection in the final 10 kilometers
3) Wait for the sprint in Sanremo
It is likely that UAE Team Emirates–XRG will choose option #1. Tadej is the strongest bike rider in the world, so making the race as hard as possible will push his rivals to their limits, and maybe even crack them completely by the top of the Poggio. UAE Team Emirates–XRG has the squad to do it. With powerhouses like Brandon McNulty, Domen Novak, and Tim Wellens, it is up to this team to dictate the final 50 km of Milano Sanremo. The majority of the team will be riding the new Colnago Y1Rs paired with ENVE’s SES 4.5 wheelset. Aero efficiency will drive all equipment choices due to the race’s extremely fast speeds.
The Cipressa is much longer than the Poggio, so it is the perfect launch pad for climbers and lightweight riders. This is the moment where we could see UAE Team Emirates-XRG take control and launch Tadej into orbit. They nearly did it in 2024, and the team is looking even stronger this year.
The Cipressa is just over nine minutes long and has an average gradient of 4.2%. Some steeper sections reach 6-7%.
Throughout our Milano Sanremo Preview, we will use VAM to measure Tadej’s climbing performances. VAM is an acronym for the Italian phrase ‘velocità ascensional media’, but colloquially, it has been English-translated to ‘vertical ascent in meters.’ In other words, VAM estimates the number of vertical meters you climb per hour.
You can think of VAM like speed, but vertically. Instead of traveling horizontally at 20 kph or mph, you are climbing at a VAM of 500 vertical meters per hour, for example. VAM is strongly influenced by the length and gradient of a given climb – it’s easier to produce a higher VAM on shorter and steeper climbs, for example.
An exceptional VAM is >1,500 Vm/h on any given climb, while most amateur riders will be around 300-600 Vm/h. World-class VAM is >1,800 Vm/h, especially on longer climbs, in the heat, and up to high altitudes. The relatively shallow gradients in Milano Sanremo lower the VAM, in this instance. Yet, we can expect to see impressive climbing numbers from Tadej on the Cipressa and Poggio.
UAE Team Emirates - XRG’s pace in 2024 was fast enough to set the Strava record on the Cipressa. With a VAM of more than 1450 Vm/h on a 4%, the team was pushing a super high pace in an attempt to drop Tadej’s rivals.
Tadej’s Effort on the Cipressa in 2024
Time: 9:21
VAM: 1,465 Vm/h
2025 Cipressa Predictions :
Time: ~9:00
VAM: ~1,600 Vm/h
With a full leadout, Tadej can break the nine-minute barrier on the Cipressa. If he does so, I don’t think there is anyone in the world that could follow him. But if it all comes back together before the Poggio, we can expect more fireworks on the most famous climb in Milano Sanremo.
Key Climb – Poggio
In 2024, Tadej broke the Strava record on the Poggio with a time of five minutes and 31 seconds. We are talking about a 3.6 km climb with an average gradient of 4% and multiple switchbacks where riders have to grab their brakes. Yet, Tadej still climbed the Poggio at over 1,450 Vm/h in 2024.
You can expect plenty of attacks on the Poggio, but will any of them be big enough to stick? Tadej was only able to distance his rivals by a few seconds in 2024, and he will need more than that to hold off Van der Poel and the like.
Tadej’s Effort on the Poggio in 2024
Time: 5:31
VAM: 1,466 Vm/h
2025 Poggio Predictions :
Time: ~5:20
VAM: ~1,600 Vm/h
Wind could affect the climbing times, but that probably won’t change UAE Team Emirates - XRG’s plan. Tadej and his teammates will have ENVE’s entire SES wheel line at their disposal to ensure they have the perfect option regardless of the course profile or wind conditions.
Tadej and his teammates will go up against a strong start list of pre-race favorites. Defending champion Philipsen returns with Alpecin-Deceuninck alongside his teammate, Van der Poel. Other top names include Filippo Ganna, Jonathan Milan, and Michael Matthews, as well as previous winners Julian Alaphilippe and Matej Mohorič.
There are a million different things that could happen on the road to Sanremo, and that’s what makes this race so exciting. There could be a solo winner, a last-minute breakaway, or a big bunch sprint. You never know what to expect in the first Monument of the season.
