TADEJ POGACAR BACK TO HIS WINNING WAYS? UAE TOUR PREVIEW
By Zach Nehr
It has been three years since Tadej Pogačar raced the UAE Tour, and this time, he’s bringing the rainbow jersey on his shoulders. The World Champion won his final four races in 2024, including a breathtaking showing at the UCI Road World Championships in Zürich. But after a long off-season, it’s time to restart the engine in the UAE.
UAE Team Emirates—XRG is bringing a strong support squad for Tadej, including Domen Novak and Mikkel Bjerg. The team will likely be on their go-to wheel throughout the UAE Tour, the SES 4.5. The only exception would be in the individual time trial where they will use a new front and disc rear wheelset that ENVE has developed with the team.
The list of UAE Tour winners includes World Champions, Olympics Champions, and of course, Tadej Pogačar. But the 26-year-old Slovenian has not raced since Il Lombardia on October 12th. His form could be a bit of a question mark – but then again, it is the rider who soloed 101km to win his first rainbow jersey.
With two summit finishes and ever-present crosswinds, anything could happen in Tadej’s first race of the season. This is your preview of the UAE Tour.
The Route
This year’s UAE Tour has three distinct stage styles: sprints, summit finishes, and individual time trials.
Stages 1, 4, 5, and 6 are expected to end in bunch sprints. In fact, some of these stages are among the flattest in professional cycling. Stage 6 from the Abu Dhabi Cycling Club to Abu Dhabi Breakwater features just 177 meters of climbing in 167 kilometers. But that doesn’t mean these stages will be boring.
The deserts of UAE are known for heavy crosswinds. Tours of previous years have seen GC favorites lose minutes in the echelons. While we don’t know when and where they will be, we can almost guarantee the presence of crosswinds at some point during the UAE Tour.
The first GC day of the UAE Tour (barring crosswind action in Stage 1) is the individual time trial around Hudayriyat Island. This stage features a 12.1 km pan-flat course that was also featured in the second stage of last year’s UAE Tour. UAE Team Emirates dominated that day, sweeping the podium with Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine, and Mikkel Bjerg.
This individual time trial will be Tadej’s first since July 2024 when he crushed the field to win the final stage of the Tour de France. However, short and flat time trials are not typically a part of Tadej’s calendar. All of his time trials in 2024 were longer than 25 kilometers, and many of them included a significant amount of climbing.
Stage 2 of this year’s UAE Tour offers the perfect testing ground for Tadej and his TT setup. The 26-year-old will be using a new Disc rear wheel and a 100mm front wheel from ENVE. Expect to see average speeds well over 55 kph.
During the sprint and climbing stages, Tadej and UAE Team Emirates - XRG will have ENVE’s entire SES wheel line at their disposal to ensure they have the perfect option regardless of the course profile or wind conditions.
Key Climb – Jebel Jais
The first summit finish of the UAE Tour is the long climb of Jebel Jais on STage 3. Lasting 19 kilometers with an average of 5.6%, Jebel Jais is a high-speed climb that is equally tactical and demanding. In previous years, the winner on Jebel Jais has sprinted from a small group, as Tadej did in the 2022 UAE Tour. In other years, the winner attacked a few kilometers from the finish and rode away to a solo victory.
Throughout our UAE Tour Preview, we will use VAM to measure Tadej’s climbing performances. VAM is an acronym for the Italian phrase ‘velocità ascensionale media’, but colloquially, it has been English-translated to ‘vertical ascent in meters.’ In other words, VAM is an estimate of the number of vertical meters you climb per hour.
You can think of VAM like speed, but vertically. Instead of traveling horizontally at 20 kph or mph, you are climbing at a VAM of 500 vertical meters per hour, for example. VAM is strongly influenced by the length and gradient of a given climb – it’s easier to produce a higher VAM on shorter and steeper climbs, for example.
An exceptional VAM is >1,500 Vm/h on any given climb, while most amateur riders will be around 300-600 Vm/h. World-class VAM is >1,800 Vm/h, especially on longer climbs, in the heat, and up to high altitudes. The relatively shallow gradients of Jebel Jais lower the VAM, in this instance. Yet, we can expect to see impressive climbing numbers from Tadej and the rest of the UAE Tour.
In the 2022 UAE Tour, Tadej won the stage atop Jebel Jais with a climbing time of 42 minutes and 35 seconds. That puts his 2022 effort at 1,525 Vm/h with an average speed of 26.8 kph up a 5.7% gradient. It’s safe to say that Tadej has gotten faster since 2022, so we can expect to see even faster climbing times in this year’s UAE Tour.
Tadej’s Effort on Jebel Jais in 2022
Time: 42:35
VAM: 1,525 Vm/h
2025 Jebel Jais Predictions :
Time: 40:00-41:00
VAM: 1,600-1650 Vm/h
The GC will reshuffle on Jebel Jais, but the UAE Tour is far from over at this point in the stage race. Stages 4, 5, and 6 are sprint stages with the potential for heavy crosswinds in the desert. Then, it will all come down to the final climb of the UAE Tour: Jebel Hafeet.
Key Climb – Jebel Hafeet
Jebel Hafeet is a completely different climb than Jebel Jais. While the latter is fast and tactical, the former is more of a fitness test. Featuring ramps upwards of 17%, Jebel Hafeet is as hard as it gets in the early part of the professional cycling season.
While the official profile says 10.9 km at 6.7%, the last 3km of Jebel Hafeet includes short downhills and flat sections. The majority of the climb includes gradients of 8-12%, perfect launching pads for a rider like Tadej.
The Slovenian won atop Jebel Hafeet in 2021 and 2022, but it is his 2021 ride that is his fastest on Strava. Tadej completed the climb in just over 26 minutes with a VAM of 1,717 Vm/h. You can see the shallow gradients in Tadej’s race file when his speed goes well over 35 kph. The middle and steeper portion of Jebel Hafeet was ridden at nearly 2,000 Vm/h, the kind of climbing numbers that Tadej was posting during the Zürich World Championships.
As professional cycling – and Tadej – have gotten faster and faster, we can expect to see the fastest climbing times ever on Jebel Hafeet this year.
Tadej’s Effort on Jebel Hafeet in 2021
Time: 26:27
VAM: 1,717 Vm/h
2025 Jebel Hafeet Predictions :
Time: 25:30-25:40
VAM: 1,800-1850 Vm/h
Tadej Pogačar is the favorite in nearly every race that he starts, but that doesn’t mean this year’s UAE Tour will be a walk in the park. Defending Champion Lennert Van Eetvelt returns to the UAE Tour with Lotto, while Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale is sending a strong squad that includes Tour de France stage winner Felix Gall.
The first GC action is likely to occur on Hudayriyat Island in Stage 2’s time trial, but you can never count out crosswinds in the desert. Jebel Jais offers the first test for the climbers, but those results could be completely overwritten by the tough climb to Jebel Hafeet.
